We always look at "As Fed" and those values are still high if you have a sensitive horse. Also, the fact that the testing was done using NIR and not Wet Chem means there's additional variation. Off the top of my head, we've had some members retest with Wet Chem and they found that the NIR numbers were 20% less than the Wet Chem. We also have several members whose horses are so sensitive that even on hay that's been tested with Wet Chem and come back at 7-8% ESC+starch it's still too much for them and they show improvement when that hay is soaked.
Bottom line on this - soak the hay at least an hour in cold water or 30 minutes in hot water before feeding.
Exercise - you know him best. As noted in your welcome letter with regard to exercise
And as Kirsten noted: Circulation is good, but too much movement (especially if the trim isn't mechanically correct yet and/or the insulin is still high) can cause more damage.
With all that being said I would err on the side of caution and be very cautious in what you're doing with him until his feet are in a better place.
I'm not the hoof expert - that's Lavinia - but I see no change in sole depth on the x-rays. The continued soreness is an indication that things still need to be improved but how much of that is lack of sole, too long in the toe or elevated insulin is hard to say. That's why all areas need to be addressed.
If you want to get on Lavinia's list for trim mark-ups the best way to do that is post a message with the title "Lavinia, request for trim markups" and then include the information on when the photos and x-rays were done and when the farrier is coming back. Make sure you read the section of the Wiki on hoof photos - generally the more of the foreleg in the shot the better as it helps with evaluating the hoof/pastern angle.